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Hi Amit and All:
When I'm updating a model, adding new data, what is the best way to do that?
F.i. I have a model initially calibrated to 2005. Now I got new data and want to make the BY=2009. Also would be nice to keep the past data and don't maximize during the years before 2009. I'm sure you do it a lot. What is your suggestions?
Thanks,
Oleg
Posts: 8
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Joined: Sep 2010
Looks like my questions is confusing - I'll try to reword it:
What options does VEDA provide for updating a model?
Currently I'm putting new data (stocks, AF,...) directly to BY templates, and shifting start year for all new techs to later years. Continuing the example above, where I have 2005 as a base year, I put data for 2006-2009 to the BY templates. In NewTechs file I change start year from 2006 to 2010. This works fine however with some consequences:
1) stocks are not extrapolating any more according their lifetime (to fix it I put BY stocks for 2020 and 2050, assuming some % for decommissioning);
2) prices for the period 2006-2009 tend to be unrealistically height (because model optimize through the years and there is no options to produce more - only dummy import).
My guess - this is not the best way to update a model with new data. I don't use BY_trans - don't understand it's purpose. Is it for updating a model?
Another way is update using UC - I haven't tried it yet.
Does anyone have suggestions / can share experience?
thanks,
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23-09-2010, 02:03 AM
(This post was last modified: 23-09-2010, 02:04 AM by AKanudia.)
The course of action depends upon two things:
1. whether you have all the base-year data for 2009 or only some of it
2. the amount of time do you have to do this
If you have set up the base-year stocks via sectoral energy balances, then the cleanest way would be to update those tables and actually start the model in 2009.
What you are trying is to keep the base year but make 2009 look more like what has been observed. This is a very reasonable thing to do and we do it in our PET36 and TIAM models on a regular basis. The only general thing I can tell you is to think in terms of putting NCAP_BND(LO) for the years that have passed. This will also keep the stock extrapolation feature of VEDA working. And the marginals will not put on weight... emaciation can’t be ruled out though.
Lets do a GoToMeeting one of these days.
PS: NCAP_BND(FX) is also an option, but it can lead to dummies.
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OK, thanks. Will you suggest to put the NCAP_BND to BY_trans file or UC?
