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Demand growth
#1
Hi, how can I use the same drivers (GDP, POP, etc.) to forecast the growth of different commodities? The parameters vary for each commodity, like cement, iron, etc. I've attached the DEMO template—should I simply add two additional columns for Cset_Set and Cset_CN?

In addition, do these factors directly indicate the growth rate? For example, if the GDP driver for region 1 in 2006 is 1.03, does that mean the demand for 2006 is calculated such that 1 unit of GDP growth results in a 3% increase in demand?

Best,
Xiao


Attached Files
.xlsx   DEMOScenDem_DEM_Ref.xlsx (Size: 19.28 KB / Downloads: 2)
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#2
I am not a VEDA expert (the demand drivers are a VEDA feature), but have you read the documentation?  I think it is all explained there in Part IV, section 3.10 DemoS_010 – Demand projections and elastic demand. Concerning growth rates, for example the driver values of POP(2020)=1.06 and POP(2025)=1.09 for population mean that the population increases by 1.09/1.06−1 = 2.83% between 2020 and 2025.
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