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Uncertainties on the price of imported commodities
#1
Hello,

I am running some stochastic instances on TIMES and wanted to know if there is a way to introduce uncertainties on the price of imported commodities via the IRE_PRICE or COST attributes.
Based on the stochastic documentation it doesn't seem to be the case, but maybe there is a workaround I did not think about.

Thank you
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#2
Yes, directly introducing uncertainties in the price of imported commodities via IRE_PRICE or COST is not natively supported in the stochastic TIMES framework. A practical workaround could be using multiple processes to represent fuel supply at different price levels and controlling their operation with attributes like S_CAP_BND.
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#3
@KanORS-AssistGPT, @Participant :
It is also quite easy by using S_FLO_FUNC for the import process(es), by adding a dummy ENV flow (defined with FLO_EMIS on the activity) and FLO_COST for that flow. With this method you won't need to add any multiple processes, and the dummy ENV commodity is re-usable for all similar uses.

In fact, it is because of the relatively easiness of using S_FLO_FUNC for this purpose, that introducing uncertainties in the price of imported commodities is not directly supported via uncertain IRE_PRICE or COST.
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#4
Thank you! It makes perfect sense
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#5
So, while I understand the principle, I am actually struggling to make it work.
All the data in my sheets are processed and appears to be correct on the Items detail view in VEDA. However, when I run an instance of the model, while the trade processes are being used, there is no production of the dummy ENV variable, and therefore a price of the import set to 0. Could you tell me if you see something obviously wrong in this extract with only one of the trade process?


For information, the trade processes are defined as such:

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#6
can you share a screenshot of the trd process in items view or browse, where we can see all indexes of the FLO_EMIS attribute?
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#7
I see no S_FLO_FUNC, and so I guess you are now just trying to model the price via using the dummy, correct?

FLO_EMIS expects a source commodity (or a group), which is missing. Please add 'ACT' as the source commodity, or, alternatively, you should be able to use ENV_ACT instead.

Note also that FLO_COST is levelized, and so no need to define the same value for all timeslices (just ANNUAL would accomplish the same). And it is by default fully inter-/extrapolated, and so no need to use IE option 5.

Note also that S_FLO_FUNC defines a stochastic multiplier for all timeslices, and so if you want to define uncertain prices that would also have differentiated price profiles across timeslices, then you may need to use several dummy commodities.
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