13-12-2024, 09:36 PM
Hi!
I am running a fairly simple long term investment model, which needs to meet a fixed electricity demand of 10 PJ, currently first introduced in 2030, and then increasing linearly from 2030 up to 2050. I have recently been running some 3 stage stochastic scenarios, using the uncertainty options 'Stochastic' and 'SPINES' under the properties groups.
I have a 2nd stage introducing uncertainty on technology investment costs using S_NCAP_COST starting in 2025 with values being specified every 5 years (2025, 2030, 2035. etc.), and a third stage introducing production uncertainty using S_NCAP_AFS, with values in 2030, 2040, and 2050 (totalling 9 scenarios in the end). The program runs from 2025 to 2050, with milestoneyrs in every 5 years from then (2030, 2035 etc.)
I have found documentation briefly detailing the SPINES option in the 'Stochastic Programming and Tradeoff Analysis in TIMES', down in Appendix A, but I am unsure how to understand specifically the capacity investment decisions happening in SPINES. Since the investments are always equal across all scenarios in SPINES, what exactly does it use to determines what investments are optimal?
To rephrase if needed: I did read that during a stochastic run, the program cannot see the realization of the uncertain parameters ahead of time, so it has to make some investment decisions based only on the information currently available, however, once the parameters are revealed, what are the investment decisions in these periods, in SPINES, based on?
I am somewhat new to TIMES and VEDA, so do bear with me if the question is unclear. If you need anything else from me to make it easier to answer the question, do let me know.
Best regards,
Lucas
I am running a fairly simple long term investment model, which needs to meet a fixed electricity demand of 10 PJ, currently first introduced in 2030, and then increasing linearly from 2030 up to 2050. I have recently been running some 3 stage stochastic scenarios, using the uncertainty options 'Stochastic' and 'SPINES' under the properties groups.
I have a 2nd stage introducing uncertainty on technology investment costs using S_NCAP_COST starting in 2025 with values being specified every 5 years (2025, 2030, 2035. etc.), and a third stage introducing production uncertainty using S_NCAP_AFS, with values in 2030, 2040, and 2050 (totalling 9 scenarios in the end). The program runs from 2025 to 2050, with milestoneyrs in every 5 years from then (2030, 2035 etc.)
I have found documentation briefly detailing the SPINES option in the 'Stochastic Programming and Tradeoff Analysis in TIMES', down in Appendix A, but I am unsure how to understand specifically the capacity investment decisions happening in SPINES. Since the investments are always equal across all scenarios in SPINES, what exactly does it use to determines what investments are optimal?
To rephrase if needed: I did read that during a stochastic run, the program cannot see the realization of the uncertain parameters ahead of time, so it has to make some investment decisions based only on the information currently available, however, once the parameters are revealed, what are the investment decisions in these periods, in SPINES, based on?
I am somewhat new to TIMES and VEDA, so do bear with me if the question is unclear. If you need anything else from me to make it easier to answer the question, do let me know.
Best regards,
Lucas