RES-E targets

[yasmine94]

Hello, 
I would appreciate your help with something. I am working on setting a target for the share of RES-E generation and fossil fuel-based electricity generation. I need assistance in translating the target I have set, which is currently in the form of a table, into a mathematical equation, or clearly articulate in words what this table means, to ensure I’m on the right track.

[Antti-L]

I could be mistaken, but based on a quick look, you seem to be setting minimum targets for fossil power generation. For example, in 2050 the target seems to be:

   (ELC+ELCD production from gas+oil+coal)  ≥ 5 + 0.80 × (total ELC+ELCD production)

However, I admit that does not make too much sense to me. Why should in 2050 fossil power have at least 80% share plus 5?

[yasmine94]

Dear Antti,

Thank you for your suggestions. I have applied the changes and updated the table to ensure that the share of all electricity produced from fossil fuels remains below 0.20 by 2050. The model is successfully meeting this constraint, and it’s now running without dummies, reading the constraints as expected. However, I’m encountering a challenge that I’d like your guidance on.

The model is installing capacities for GAS and COAL, but in some cases, these capacities are not producing. I haven’t imposed any limits on MINGAS or MINCOA commodities, so the countries should have the flexibility to import or extract from their reserves. In response to this, I also tried setting the shares based on installed capacities, aligned with the targets set in the countries’ NDCs and LT-LEDS, but the issue persists.

Here’s a summary of the problem:

In Tunisia (REG1), gas and coal capacities are installed but not producing in 2050, although they produce in all other years.
In Morocco (REG2), gas and coal are producing in all years except 2030.
In contrast, Algeria (REG3) is consistently producing gas and coal across all years and fulfilling the constraints.
I am uncertain why these capacities are being installed but are not utilized in certain regions and years. Could this be related to constraints in the model that I might have overlooked? Or is the system optimizing for another factor that is causing this behavior?

I’ve attached two images for reference:

Image 1- The updated table reflecting the fossil fuel electricity generation constraints.
Image 2- The table showing capacity share constraints for natural gas.

Note: I have not run the scenarios together; instead, I either run the model in terms of production shares or capacity shares separately.

I would appreciate any insights or suggestions you could provide to help resolve this issue.

[Antti-L]

> The model is installing capacities for GAS and COAL, but in some cases, these capacities are not producing.
> In Tunisia (REG1), gas and coal capacities are installed but not producing in 2050, although they produce in all other years.  In Morocco (REG2), gas and coal are producing in all years except 2030.

I find it difficult to give concrete insights about the issue you are seeing. I am sure you understand that the solution provided by the solver is the optimal solution, and therefore, you obviously must have something in your model either limiting the use of COAL and GAS or making it not competitive in those model years (2050 for Tunisia, 2030 for Morocco).

Concerning Tunisia, are you saying that the model even installs new gas and coal capacity in 2050, but leaves all gas and coal capacity unused?  That would indicate some constraint forcing the model to invest in new gas and coal capacity in 2050.  But again, not using that capacity suggests that there is, in fact, some limitation on the use of gas and coal, or making it too costly.  And I have the same comment about Morocco in 2030.

So, I can only suggest checking once again the constraints or bounds on the supply of gas and coal, as well as any constraints or bounds related to using them in the power plant sector (and the marginal prices there for ELCCOA & ELCGAS).